I got a text from my youngest daughter yesterday. She wrote: "What do we think is going to happen in Israel?"
Having been through a few of these senseless cycles, I confidently answered her: "Nothing."
Meaning, nothing will change.
Nothing in terms of reaching a lasting peace.
Nothing that hasn't already been done a hundred or a thousand times before.
The Israelis will retaliate, en masse.
The UN will get itself worked in a tizzy, neglecting the fact that just a few hundred miles to the north, President Assad killed hundreds of thousands of his people and exiled millions more. New concrete footings will be poured into the cavities of the ones that were blasted to smithereens by F16 fighter jets.
And the uneasy detente, peppered with random rocket firings and terrorist crackdown, will resume. What's clear from all this is that there is no military solution.
There never is.
There can only be a political solution. Agreed to by willing partners and leaders. In very spare supply, these days.
Then it occurred to me, literal schmucks like Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jim Jordan have ascended to occupy one of the 435 most powerful positions in the world. Moreover, an infamous snake oil/real estate salesman has aquanetted and bronzed himself to position himself to reclaim the title as the most powerful man on the planet.
So, what's to stop me from floating up a geo-political plan worthy of discussion?
The residents of Gaza and the West Bank, see themselves as Palestinians, this despite the historical record showing there has never been a Palestinian people or recognized bloodline, until the British booted the Ottomans and colonized that area of the Fertile Crescent in the early 1900's.
Let us concede that part of the argument. Because rehashing the past is messy and frankly not going to do anybody any good.
Palestinians want to rule themselves. Fine. They also don't want to live under Israeli rule, this despite the fact that most Arabs living in Israel enjoy a higher standard of living than in the surrounding countries. Particularly the ones from Syria. That's also fine.
Here's my idea: cede the land of Gaza to the Egyptians. Israel already gave back 61,000 square kilometers (Sinai Peninsula), what's 141square miles more? The Egyptians can then grant the residents of Gaza, non-militarized self autonomy. The Palestinians living in Gaza can have their own flag, their currency, their own soccer team, their own self determination.
And then they can stop picking fights with Israel. Which would behoove them in the short and the long run.
If it works out, the same formula can be applied to the majority of the West Bank.
One might ask, why should the Egyptians and the Jordanians (Arab and Islamic brethren) agree to such an arrangement and incorporate this new land? I would posit for the same reason that Israel was expected to give back land rightfully captured in the defensive wars of '48, '56, 67 and '73.
Granted, this is all reductionist and simplistic thinking. But you know what, it beats the fuck out of NOTHING.
Ceding the land is a great idea, and considering how many accountants there are in Israel...the government could probably swing a tax deduction out of it as well...only problem? Egypt (like all Israel's neighbors) won't want the land if it includes the Palistinians... that's been the problem from the get go...you basically alluded to it in your initial observation
ReplyDeleteYou are right that there is no military path to peace. There is, however, already a perfect diplomatic and political path to peace: UN 2334.
ReplyDeleteHere's the cliffnotes version: Israel reverts to pre-1967 borders and any Jewish settlers either have the opportunity to stay and obey the territorial laws of Palestine, or accept Israeli compensation and move. Since not all will do so, tens of thousands of intensely security-vetted palestinians will have the opportunity to resettle in Israel provided they stay out of trouble, have a traceable address, and follow Israeli law--all so an equal number of Israelis can have the choice to remain in their settlements in Palestine. This is called the Holy Land Confederation, and it is a truly incredible and even-handed solution to a very difficult problem. You can read about all the detail here: https://ecf.org.il/issues/issue/1541, including well thought-out clauses including that both palestinian and israeli will vote in their own national elections and local municipal elections so as not to disenfranchise the other. If the federation were enacted today, Israel would annex just 2.25% of the West Bank in exchange for occupied lands as shown here https://geneva-accord.org/geneva-maps/, and would take a truly historic step to restart the relationship between two cultures with long ties to one another.
Some say a attempted two-state solution like the Holy Land Confederation has never been farther away, but the violence and terror occurring even as I write this suggests the opposite might be true: What we are seeing is the same cycle Israel and Palestine have been trapped in for generations, and perhaps only when peace is broken can it be mended and restored.